Despite a flurry of potentially volatile events, average mortgage rates were unchanged in the morning and slightly lower in the afternoon. Last Thursday's inflation data pushed the 30-year fixed rate to a five-month low and has not moved significantly since.
Technically, interest rates today haven't fully returned to Monday's levels, but the average borrower will see the same bond interest rate either way. The only potential difference will be in upfront costs, which are small.
Economic data so far this week has not triggered any major changes in interest rates, but there is still some uncertainty surrounding upcoming data. Weekly jobless claims data is due for release on Thursday, which is typically not a big deal, but attention is now focused on the labor market report, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could favor a Fed rate cut.
The Federal Reserve is currently expected to cut interest rates for the first time this fiscal year in September. The bar is set too high for it to even consider a cut in July, and the economic data due between now and then will almost certainly be too high to make a difference.
That said, the Fed Funds rate does not directly drive day-to-day changes in other rates. We could still see a favorable reaction in the near term if data strengthens the case for a rate cut in September or for additional cuts thereafter. Conversely, improving data could see rates undergo a small adjustment while we await the next big jobs report in early August.