Aviation analyst Cirium releases its annual aircraft report, pointing to increased investment in aircraft over the next 20 years.
The report, now in its 12th edition, revealed that 45,900 aircraft are expected to be delivered, with manufacturers focusing on more efficient and environmentally friendly aircraft. The report also found that aircraft deliveries are up about 5% from pre-pandemic levels despite continued supply issues, particularly the Boeing 737 MAX. This is despite significant declines in regional and turboprop aircraft deliveries of 8% and 13%, respectively.
In addition to passenger planes, the report predicts that around 3,500 freighter planes will be delivered next year, representing a 2.6% annual increase in global freighter fleets. Still, the remaining growth will come from passenger aircraft, whose total growth rate is expected to be around 4.4% over the same 20-year period.
Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Sirium Ascend Consultancy, which commissioned the report, said in a statement:
“As the airline industry continues to enter its next growth cycle, our new fleet forecast shows continued demand for new aircraft as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets.
However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing issues will continue to cause delays for OEMs and uncertain delivery dates for many airlines, and this is factored into our forecasts. ”
Boeing and Airbus continue to dominate
The report predicts that Airbus and Boeing will remain leaders in the aircraft manufacturing market, despite continuing concerns about safety, the ability to meet delivery targets, and deteriorating labor relations. The two companies are expected to deliver 84% of all aircraft between 2024 and 2043, with Asia likely to be the leader in aircraft growth.
The region is expected to receive 45% of all shipments during the period, of which China will receive approximately 25%. Meanwhile, the report says India is likely to become an emerging market, with more than 3,000 aircraft added to the country's fleet by 2043.
The report also predicts that technology and investment in new engine designs will increase in the coming years, pushing the drive towards net-zero engines. Earlier this year, EasyJet announced it would partner with Jet Zero to develop blended wing technology. Meanwhile, EcoJet itself has faced a number of delays, but still aims to fly its first all-hydrogen fuel cell aircraft by next year.
It is therefore clear that investment will continue to rise, with most data showing that new markets and technologies will drive growth, according to Cirium's report.
You can read Cirium's full report here.
What do you think? Do you think Cirium's predictions are correct, or maybe the timescale is a little too wide and doesn't take into account economic or political changes that might occur within 20 years? Leave a comment below Please let us know your opinion.
