With home buyer traffic in Portland steadily increasing and housing inventory remaining stable (and showing signs of increasing in the near future), home prices are rising and the market is gearing up for an active spring season. Sellers will benefit from increased buyer competition over the coming months, so home buyers will need to act fast before prices peak towards the end of the season.
Of course, everyone is wondering about the recent settlement with the NAR and how it will affect the real estate market this year. It is important to note that nothing is expected to change (and I have not seen any changes yet) until the actual rules change in July 2024. For more information, please visit our website. Right now, everyone is waiting for the settlement to be approved by the court, but until that happens, the situation remains uncertain.
Read on to learn more about the factors shaping Portland's current market conditions.
Portland sees growing influx of home buyers
Since January, the housing market has been gaining momentum in terms of buyer inflow, with the number of current active homebuyers increasing by nearly 2,000 since last month's report. Each spring, the local housing market becomes active with a new wave of buyers searching for a new home, making it the most favorable season for sellers. We expect the number of active buyers to continue to grow on its current trajectory (shown in the RMLS graph below) throughout the spring season. Note that buyer inflow in March of this year was slightly higher than in March of 2023.
Homebuyer activity reveals the state of the real estate market, and buyer traffic numbers can be used to effectively gauge the “temperature” of the real estate market. To show how these numbers reflect the state of the housing market, we've created the chart below. While traffic levels left the market lukewarm in February, the numbers are in the same range in March as the market continues to warm. As we move further into the spring season, the number of active homebuyers should continue to increase.
Oregon Weekly Home Buyers Hot or Cold Market? 0 – 5,000 Frozen 5,000 – 10,000 Cold 10,000 – 15,000 Cool 15,000 – 20,000 Lukewarm 20,000 – 25,000 Warm 25,000 + Hot
Portland real estate inventory is stable
The overall inventory of available homes for sale in Portland has been trending downward since December but is now stabilizing. As shown in the Fidelity graph below, this is a common pattern in the local housing market in early spring, when motivated sellers begin to list their homes and inventory begins to build. Currently, inventory is still low and the market is booming in terms of home supply, as shown in the graph below. Inventory should increase even more rapidly in the coming months as more new homes enter the market.
Inventory as of March 27, 2024. The above chart is courtesy of Fidelity National Title. Portland Inventory RankingsHot or Cold Market?0 – 500 Hot (April 2022 Notice)500 – 750 Hot750 – 1,000 Warm (Currently)1,000 – 1,250 Lukewarm1,250 – 1,500 Cold1,500 – 1,750 Cold1,750 – 2,000 + Frozen (October – December of last year)
In the Portland area, spring is always a great season to sell a home due to a combination of increasing buyer demand and low housing supply. With the number of homes available for sale remaining low and the number of active home buyers steadily increasing, it's an ideal time for sellers to put their home on the market to take advantage of buyer competition and secure the highest sales price.
The number of discounted homes continues to decline
Percentage of properties that have decreased in price as of March 27, 2024. Chart provided by Fidelity National Title.
The percentage of homes on the market that had to have their price reduced this month has fallen to just under 33% since our February report (35%). Each spring, buyer competition for a limited number of homes intensifies, keeping prices high for sellers. The number of homes that have been reduced in price has been steadily declining since December, and the trend is expected to continue through April or May as the sellers' market begins to wind down for the year.
Average prices are rising
Price per square foot as of March 27, 2024. Chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.
Home prices (expressed as price per square foot) have been increasing since the beginning of the year and, as you can see from the graph above, are roughly in line with average prices in March 2022. Current market conditions, with a low supply of homes resulting in more buyers competing, have led to higher prices and these factors are expected to continue to drive prices up through the spring season.
Number of new properties and sales contracts increased in February
The number of new homes added to the market began to increase at the start of the year and continued to increase in February. In contrast to the decline seen during the same period last year, as can be seen in the above graph from RMLS, the number of listings increased at a similar rate (albeit in smaller numbers) as in February 2022. Portland's market trends follow seasonal patterns, so we expect the number of new home listings to continue to increase throughout the spring season.
Unlike February 2023, February's pending sales experienced a similar increase to 2022. Spring is typically the most productive season for the local real estate market, with buyers most active, leading to the annual sales peak. Home sales are expected to continue to increase through May.
High interest rates and inflation are two factors that contributed to the overall cooling of the housing market in Portland and on a national level last year. Check out our 2024 forecast to see how these two factors will impact current market conditions.
Ideal conditions for sellers
We have over 20 years of experience analyzing the local housing market and helping sellers navigate it. Now is the best time to sell a home in Portland. March is an ideal time to put your home on the market. If you're ready to put your home on the market, we recommend doing so as soon as possible. Conditions typically remain favorable for sellers until May. Spring is the most active time of the Portland housing market, with many motivated buyers, short transaction periods and ideal sales prices for sellers.
Advice for home buyers
More buyers mean prospective homebuyers may face competition for homes, but as the inventory of new homes increases in the coming months, buyers will also have more options. It's a good idea to grab a bargain before prices peak towards the end of spring. We recommend using the home search platform PortlandHomesForSale.com. The platform offers a robust set of custom filters that allow you to narrow your results, such as searching for “biggest price drop in last 7 days,” or searching for homes in a specific area.
Let our experience work for you
With decades of experience in the Portland, Oregon real estate market, our team has gained comprehensive knowledge of market trends and how they benefit buyers and sellers. Whether you're preparing to buy or sell, our team of top 1% buyers or sellers will provide you with top-notch customer service with lower than average commission rates. Chat with the bot on this site or call us now at 503-714-1111. Be part of your success story.