Have you noticed that home prices in the eastern suburbs of Raleigh are much cheaper than home prices on the west side of Raleigh?
There are lots of reasons why, and today I want to show you all of them.
Now that you understand why house prices are cheap in the Eastern Suburbs, consider your future plans and think about how long they might remain cheap for.
The Eastern Suburbs of Raleigh are an average of $200,000 cheaper than the Western Suburbs!! In this video we explain in detail why.
Location determines price
Take a look at this graph: Average home prices are $200,000 lower on the East Side than on the West Side. What on earth is going on?
When you look at these properties on a map, you can see a very clear pricing pattern.
Look at the current median price.
Proximity to RTP
The closer you are to Research Triangle Park, the largest employment center, the higher the property price. If you look at this map, you can see that Cary sits directly below RTP and is the most expensive suburb in the area.
Now, some of you may be wondering what happened to Morrisville.
Isn't Morrisville the closest suburb to RTP?
Outliers: Morrisville and Wake Forest
While it is true that Morrisville is close to the RTP, it actually violates the rule of proximity to the RTP that determines value.
This is a good example of how there are always a lot more variables to consider at once, so it's a bit of an oversimplification. And because it's a simplification, I'm also excluding Wake Forest, because like Morrisville, Wake Forest is also kind of an exception. It's not cheap like the other eastern suburbs. It would probably take an entire article to cover this, so I'm not going to talk about it today.
But Morrisville is a very clear example of how location isn't the only factor in home prices.
Morrisville has a significantly higher percentage of linked homes.
In Cary, 24% of homes sold last year were linked condos or townhouses, and in Morrisville, 42% of homes sold last year were linked homes.
Higher population density means more housing inventory per capita, which in turn lowers housing costs, but this doesn't necessarily mean that real estate in Morrisville is cheaper than Cary.
When looking at the average home, you’re not making an apples-to-apples comparison.
The average home in Cary might be a 3,000 square foot single-family home, while the average home in Morrisville might be a 2,200 square foot townhouse.
Keep in mind that there are many variables when it comes to housing, and this article is generalizing.
Fuquay Varina is the clue
To help visualize the price differences, let's break down the western suburbs into Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Fuquay-Varina, and the eastern suburbs into Knightdale, Wendell, and Zebulon.
But I wanted to make a call on one suburb that I think holds a very interesting piece of the puzzle of why prices are the way they are, and how they might change across the Triangle in the future.
That suburb is Fuquay-Varina.
Back in 2017, I wrote this blog about Triangle house prices. In 2017, Fuquay house prices were approaching those of the Eastern Suburbs. But look what happened over time: By 2021, Fuquay had caught up.
And today, those high prices have stabilized. [$505,000 in December 2023]
In other words, the median house price in Fuquay is now 89% higher than it was in 2017. However, in the eastern suburbs it has only increased by 58% in the same period.
Why? I think the answer lies in the three “L's” of real estate.
Location, location, location.
But… Fukuei’s location hasn’t changed but the price has gone up, so why is Fukuei so much more expensive even though it’s in the same place?
If we know what's happening in Fuquay, we can apply that logic to other eastern suburbs and predict what prices will do there.
Amenities drive up prices
Fuquay is about as close to RTP as Knightdale and Wendell are.
So why is Fuquay more expensive?
I think the primary reason why Fuquay has gone up in price, even though we're still a long way from RTP, is because the western suburbs have been creating plenty of value in their own right.
It's not just proximity to RTP that's valuable anymore – proximity to Holly Springs and Apex is key too.
The western suburbs have a longer history and have seen extensive planning and development than the eastern suburbs. Compare Cary, Apex, or even Holly Springs and Fuquay to the eastern suburbs and you'll see more. Downtown development is on the rise. There's more shopping, restaurants, and parks.
Fuquay has two distinct historic downtown districts. Fuquay is also 10 minutes from downtown Holly Springs and 20 minutes from downtown Apex.
The eastern suburbs also have downtowns, but they are less developed than those in the western suburbs.
That doesn't mean we won't see more of this in the eastern suburbs in the near future, as they are certainly starting to see development there and there will be a lot more to come.
Chipotle just signed a lease in Wendell Falls, but we're not there yet. These amenities are important to homebuyers, and people are willing to pay for them.
So while Fuquay is just as far from RTP, it's much closer to the great walkable outdoor shopping and many of the parks in the western half of Wake County. There's a lot more to do here.
Playground at Knightdale Station Park in Knightdale, North Carolina
The future of the eastern suburbs
So what does the future hold for the eastern suburbs? Knightdale is set to experience incredible development over the next decade.
Downtown North
Downtown North is a 90-acre mixed-use development adjacent to Knightdale Station. Plans include 468 affordable homes and 100 apartments, up to 500,000 square feet of commercial and retail space, plus numerous amenities throughout the development.
In addition to beautifying the streetscape with public art, the project also plans to bring a high-end grocery store to the development, something the area sorely lacks.
Development plans for Knightdale Station north of downtown
Knightdale River District
Knightdale also approved the development of a river district along the Neuse River.
The River District encompasses 2,600 acres, or 4 square miles, and while plans have yet to be solidified, developments mentioned in the proposal include parks and a greenway connecting the River District to the rest of the town's greenway system.
They will increase access to the river by installing kayak launches, boardwalks, etc. They want to turn this into a walkable, bikeable, trail-focused, mixed-use area.
They are considering converting the Knightdale Community Pool into a river-themed splash park. The goal of the plan is to create a place along the river with benches for people to enjoy while protecting the area's natural resources.
Using a unified architectural design of brick and stone with steel accents, they plan to create a commercial district along the river, with plenty of mixed-use residential and neighborhoods connected to the river by greenways.
These developments will change the overall feel of eastern Wake County.
Change has a domino effect
The area is located 15 minutes from both Wendell and Zebulon, making destinations, upscale shopping, parks and green spaces much closer and more accessible.
These towns are small but have great plans for future development. I especially like Zebulon, which has a great greenway plan that connects the whole town and makes it walkable.
But there's one thing you need to understand: Zebulon's population is the same as Fuquay-Varina's population in 1999.
If you combine Zebulon, Knightdale, and Wendell, the current population of Fuquay-Varina is almost 100 people. This is a very sparsely populated area. Going forward, the population will grow at a much faster rate than Fuquay, as all of the Triangle has reached critical mass.
But it will take at least a decade for this to be completed.
Clayton Copper District
At the same time all this is happening in Knightdale, development of the copper mining district is happening in Clayton.
Copper District was the Penney family farm. This vast expanse is being reimagined as a live-work-play development where the land and ecosystem are integrated into the lifestyle. They are modeling the district on developments that successfully integrate agricultural elements into community life. They have Harvest in Northlake, Texas. They have Serenbe in Chattahoochee Hills, Georgia.
The Copper District will feature an extensive trail network connecting commercial and residential areas, much of the tree canopy will be preserved, a wide range of retail including restaurants and entertainment venues, a public library, a variety of housing options, and outdoor recreation and amenity spaces.
The Copper District is also adjacent to the new expansion of Johnston UNC Health Care, providing excellent medical care in Creighton.
If you liked this article, you might also be interested in this one predicting what to see in Raleigh's housing market in 2024.