The high levels of homebuyer traffic seen in early spring are starting to taper somewhat due to recent increases in mortgage rates (which still remain high), while home inventory is beginning to increase. These market changes have stabilized prices, and if these two trends continue, prices may begin to decline in the coming weeks. Conditions remain ideal for sellers who are able to get their home on the market before the end of the season, and with more homes on the market heading into summer, homebuyers will begin to find more opportunities.
Below, we take a closer look at the factors that are most influencing the current state of the Portland, Oregon housing market.
Portland homebuyer traffic down slightly
The number of new buyers entering the housing market has been increasing since the beginning of the year and has continued to increase steadily throughout the spring season, despite a slight dip in March. After peaking in early April, traffic has decreased slightly but remains higher than levels at the same time last year, as shown in the graph below from RMLS. Spring is the most active time of year for the Portland housing market, seeing the most active homebuyers, so traffic is expected to remain high through the end of the season.
Buyer foot traffic is one of the most important indicators of real estate market activity and indicates whether the market is currently sluggish (or cooling) or very active (active). The graph we created below shows how these foot traffic levels affect the current state of the housing market. The number of active buyers peaked in April, putting the market in an active state, but has now decreased slightly and is at the upper end of the mid-level.
Oregon Weekly Home Buyers Hot or Cold Market? 0 – 5,000 Frozen 5,000 – 10,000 Cold 10,000 – 15,000 Cool 15,000 – 20,000 Lukewarm (Currently) 20,000 – 25,000 Warm 25,000 + Hot
Portland real estate inventory is starting to increase
The inventory of homes on the market hit a yearly low in February but has been steadily increasing as more sellers begin to list their listings in the spring. The chart below from Fidelity shows the seasonal pattern of home inventory in the local housing market, with inventory beginning to increase each year during the spring months. Current home inventory levels remain low, maintaining the market vigor we reported last month, but are beginning to increase slightly. More homes are expected to become available for sale as the spring and summer progress.
Inventory as of April 23, 2024. The above chart is courtesy of Fidelity National Title. Portland Inventory RankingsHot or Cold Market?0 – 500 Hot (April 2022 Notice)500 – 750 Hot750 – 1,000 Warm (Currently)1,000 – 1,250 Lukewarm1,250 – 1,500 Cold1,500 – 1,750 Cold1,750 – 2,000 + Frozen (October – December of last year)
The Portland real estate market operates on seasonal cycles, with spring being the best time of year to sell a home. Right now, sellers can benefit from a high number of motivated home buyers and a low supply of homes to compete with, so we recommend putting your home on the market as soon as possible to take advantage of these ideal conditions.
The number of discounted homes remains stable
Percentage of properties that have decreased in price as of April 23, 2024. Chart provided by Fidelity National Title.
In April, the number of listings that saw their prices decrease remained the same as in our last report at 33%. The number of active homebuyers remains high and home inventory is low, creating competition for sellers and keeping prices high. However, there are signs that the market is beginning to slow, including a slight decrease in buyer traffic and a slight increase in home inventory. If these factors are expected to continue over the next few months, they will ultimately lead to downward pressure on prices.
Average prices remain stable
Price per square foot as of April 23, 2024. Chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.
Home prices (calculated as price per square foot) have been rising steadily since the beginning of the year but have remained relatively stable since early March. As shown in the graph above, prices are up from the same time last year but are not as high as April 2022 prices. If the trend of fewer active homebuyers and an increase in the number of homes for sale continues, average prices should start to decline in the near future.
Increase in new listings and pending sales
The number of new home listings on the market has been increasing since January and is slightly below levels seen in March of last year, as shown in the RMLS chart above. Due to the predictable seasonal nature of the local real estate market, housing inventory is expected to continue to increase through the remainder of the spring.
From February to March, pending sales increased at roughly the same rate as the same period in 2023, then edged up slightly. The highest number of home sales of the year are expected to occur during the spring months, when buyers in the area are typically most active. Based on recent patterns, sales are expected to continue to increase through the end of spring.
High interest rates and inflation, factors that have impacted housing markets across the country, also impacted Portland metropolitan area market performance in 2023. Check out our 2024 forecast for more information on the continuing impact on the housing market this year.
The best time to sell a house
We've been involved in and studied the local housing market for decades. That experience has given us the expertise to pinpoint the best time to sell a home in the Portland area. Every spring, key market variables come together to create the most favorable conditions for sellers. Currently, this time of year is ideal for sellers and will remain so through at least May. We encourage you to sell while there is still a lot of buyer activity, which will create competition and keep prices high.
Timing of home buyers
An increase in new residential listings on the market benefits prospective homebuyers by giving them more options. And, combined with a recent decline in buyers, the increased inventory on the market also reduces competition for available homes. If you're interested in buying a home, now is a good time to start looking for available properties in your desired area. PortlandHomesForSale.com is a great resource that allows you to endlessly customize your search with unique filters (such as “biggest price drop in last 7 days”).
Work with a top real estate team
With 20 years of experience in the Portland metropolitan area, we understand the local real estate market inside out and can put that knowledge to work for you. If you're looking to buy or sell this year, our team of top 1% buyers or sellers is here to help with unmatched customer service. Our commission rates are lower than average. Call us now at 503-714-1111 or chat with the bot on this site. We'd love to have you as a part of our team.