Calculated Risk 2024/07/03 07:00:00 AM
From MBA: Latest MBA Weekly Survey Shows Increase in Mortgage Applications
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey for the week ending June 28, 2024, mortgage applications fell 2.6% from the previous week.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume, was down 2.6% week-over-week, seasonally adjusted. Unadjusted, the index was up 8% week-over-week. The Refinance Index was down 2% week-over-week and up 29% from the same week a year ago. The Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Index was down 3% week-over-week. The Unadjusted Purchase Index was up 7% week-over-week and down 12% from the same week a year ago.
“Mortgage rates rose last week, surpassing the 7% mark, but the latest inflation data is keeping market expectations alive that the Fed will cut rates later this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's senior vice president and chief economist. “Purchase applications declined in the last week of June, even as both new and existing inventory have increased over the past few months. Refinance activity also remains sluggish, although applications for conventional refinance loans increased slightly.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased from 6.93% to 7.03%, and points for loans with an 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) increased from 0.61 (including origination fees) to 0.62.
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The first chart shows the MBA Mortgage Purchase Index.
Purchasing activity was down 12% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis, according to the MBA.
Red is the four-week average (blue is weekly).
Purchase application activity has increased slightly from lows in late October 2023 but remains below the lows seen during the housing bubble collapse.
The second chart shows the refinance index since 1990.
Rising mortgage rates caused the refinance index to fall sharply in 2022 before remaining roughly flat since then and recently increasing slightly.
