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SAN DIEGO (February 12, 2024) – Of the $4.7 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors, 20% ($929 billion) will mature in 2024, up 28% from the $729 billion that matured in 2023, according to the 2023 Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturity Volume Study released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association at the 2024 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention & Expo.
“The lack of transactions and other activity last year, combined with built-in extension options and lender and servicer flexibility, has resulted in many loans that were scheduled to mature in 2023 being extended or modified so that they will now mature in 2024, 2026, 2028 or in the next few years,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's director of commercial real estate research. “These extensions and modifications have increased the amount of CRE mortgages maturing this year from $659 billion to $929 billion.”
Woodwell added, “Commercial mortgages tend to be longer term, with maturities spanning several years. Volatility and uncertainty around interest rates, lack of clarity around property values and questions about some of the real estate fundamentals have inhibited sales and lending activity. This year's maturities, combined with a clearer outlook for those and other sectors, should begin to break the logjam in the market.”
Loan maturity dates vary widely across investor and property type groups. Only $28 billion (3%) of outstanding multifamily and health loans held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and Ginnie Mae mature in 2024. Life insurance companies have $59 billion (8%) of their outstanding mortgage balances maturing in 2024. In contrast, $441 billion (25%) of outstanding mortgages held by depository institutions, $234 billion (31%) of CMBS, CLOs or other ABS, and $168 billion (36%) of mortgages held by credit companies, warehouses or other lenders mature in 2024.
By property type, 12% of multifamily mortgages mature in 2024, as do 17% of retail mortgages and 18% of healthcare mortgages. Of office loans, 25% mature in 2024, as do 27% of industrial loans and 38% of hotel/motel loans.
The dollar amounts reported are the unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2023. Because most loans are repaid in principal, the balance at maturity will generally be lower than the amounts reported here.